Appliance Growth Slowing

But the indicators have turned in the last six months. Here’s what’s going on:

Real 10-Yr Treasury Rate. The real (inflation-adjusted) 10-yr U.S. Treasury bond interest rate was 0.92% in February, which was a slight decline from last month. This was the first month below 1% since November, and it was the lowest rate since October. The nominal rate currently was 242 basis points (2.42%), which was virtually unchanged from last month. But the rate of inflation rose to its fastest rate since February 2012. In February 2017, inflation was above 2.5% for the second straight month. Increasing inflation is limiting the rise in the real 10-yr Treasury rate even though the nominal rate has increased (the real rate is the nominal rate minus inflation). The year-over-year change in the real rate increased to -53 basis points (-0.53%). That was the fourth straight month of an increase and the highest it has been since May 2016.

Housing Permits. There were 84,500 housing permits filed in February 2017. This was the lowest level for permits since January 2016. Compared with one year ago, housing permits were unchanged, which was the second time in three months that permits did not grow. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 0.3%, which was the slowest since October 2011.

Housing permits tend to lag changes in the real 10-yr Treasury rate by about one year. Since October 2016, the change in the interest rate has been moving in a negative direction for housing permits. Therefore, I expect the annual change in housing permits to contract at some point in 2017.

Appliance Industrial Production. Despite the extended period of growth since May 2012, the actual level of appliance production is still at the bottom of the production levels from 1994 to 2007. That shows what a toll the industry took as a result of the popping of the housing bubble about 10 years ago.