July 2026: Flat-to-Down Price Trajectory for Volume Resins?

While the uncertainty of the conflict with Iran and its impact on global energy, feedstocks and resin trade flows continued into June, the dramatic upward price trajectory of all volume resins appeared to be slowing; a trend that was particularly evident in polyolefins where a reversal seems to be taking hold, albeit slowly. Depending on the resin, contributing factors for sliding prices include lower feedstock costs, ample resin supplier inventories. In some cases market consolidation, lackluster demand, lower export and spot prices, and rising inflation contributed. Still, nobody expects any of these resin price drops to approach lows in recent years.  

Below are the views of purchasing consultants from Resin Technology Inc. (RTi); David Barry, associate director of polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polystyrene (PS) for Dow Jones Energy (formerly OPIS’ PetroChemWire); Michael Greenberg, CEO of Resintel, the market intelligence service of The Plastics Exchange (TPE); Scott Newell, EVP of polyolefins at distributor/compounder Spartan Polymers; and Mike Burns, VP of PE markets at Plastic Resin Market Advisors.

PE Prices Flat, Then Down?

Having moved up a whopping 30¢/lb in April (for a total of 45¢/lb so far in 2026), PE prices in May were flat despite suppliers seeking a May 20¢/lb hike. That proposed increase was amended and postponed to 10¢/lb for June implementation, according to Barry, Greenberg, Burns and Kevin Mekaru, RTi’s senior business leader for PE, PP, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and nylon 6.

“The market needs a chance to regroup since export prices and domestic spot prices have dropped, much more so for the former,” Burns says. “For example, exported HDPE blow molding resins, after climbing by 40%, peaked at 80¢/lb but by May’s end had dropped to the low 60¢/lb range, and some industry sources project it will drop high 50¢/lb range in June. Domestic spot prices for the same grade dropped from 90¢/lb to the mid-80¢/lb range — between 5-7¢/lb.” Barry and the other sources all note that the domestic prebuying within March and April appears to have paused further buying, which could last into July for some processors. RTi’s Mekaru says prices in June would be flat to down by about 5¢/lb, with a similar scenario possible for July, depending on supplier inventory buildup, particularly if export demand continues to ease.

Burns’ outlook through July is that industry data supports a trajectory change, as strong supplier production and higher processor inventories should impact future price increase initiatives. “Industry data supports a change in market direction,” Burns says. “Without upward pressure from the export prices, spot prices will begin to weaken. Contract prime prices will likely remain firm until the spot and contact price delta is significant.”

Greenberg says that soft export markets, patient domestic buyers and declining spot levels make the next increase far more difficult. He ventures that after a rollover of May contract prices, PE suppliers could well spend the next few months “giving back some of the 45¢/lb contract gains as slowly as possible, barring a shift in supply-demand dynamics, another geopolitical shock to restore supplier leverage or China changing its export tune.”

PP Prices Down, Then Flat to Down?

Prices of PP in May dropped by 7¢/lb in step with declines in polymer grade propylene (PGP), after a total increase of 33.5¢/lb (26.5¢/lb in concert with PGP and a 7¢/lb non-monomer increase), according to Barry, Greenberg, Newell and Mekaru.

Greenberg reports that despite some indications that PGP could dip into the 40s, the PGP May contract settled at 52¢/lb. Greenberg expects more of a decrease in June.

Some PP suppliers revised their May 10¢/lb non-monomer margin efforts to a June 5¢/lb increase independent of PGP. “That makes sense strategically, but spot sentiment is not especially friendly to additional margin right now,” Greenberg says. All sources note that spot PGP had dropped to the high 30¢/lb range, a significant delta with contract pricing, which is typically in the single digits. PP prices in June and July are likely to be flat and possibly down by 2-3¢/lb, they forecast.

Supply of homopolymer PP is greater than copolymer supplies, pushing copolymer prices about 4¢/lb higher rather than its more typical 2¢/lb more, according to Barry. He and Mekaru speculate that prebuying in Q1 and into Q2 slowed demand in the May-June timeframe. Barry predicts some true equilibrium could emerge in July, which may determine “true market demand.”

Like Greenberg, Newell doubts any further non-monomer increases will be implemented based solely on supply-demand fundamentals, noting that despite a year-to-date 7% increase in demand through April, any increase may prove to be lower, due to the heavy prebuying. Still, like other sources, he sees a lot of risk related to overall global demand, the Middle East conflict, rising interest rates and inflation. “Outside of geopolitical risks, market fundamentals do not support any further increases,” Newell says.

PS Prices Up

Following their March 5¢/lb price hike, PS suppliers implemented increases of 16-17¢/lb in April and sought to push through another 10-12¢/lb in May, according to Barry and Brian Balboa, RTi’s senior business unit leader for PS and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Climbing benzene prices were the key factor. Balboa expects 8-10¢/lb of the May price initiative to be implemented. Both sources say most of these increases were for high-impact polystyrene (HIPS) due to higher butadiene costs along with Total’s scheduled maintenance turnaround of HIPS production.

Suppliers also sought a 5¢/lb price hike for June, but Balboa thinks that a 3¢/lb implementation would have been more realistic. While there was still feedstock volatility, spot benzene prices have eased a bit, he adds. Both sources say that PS seasonal demand for single-use and other picnic/summer items showed improvement with plant utilization rates increasing to 64% from the low-50s percentage wise. Going into June, Barry says the implied styrene price, based on a 70% benzene and 30% ethylene spot formula, was down more than 5¢/lb, amid market weakness for olefins and aromatics. Both sources expect further consolidation of the PS sector as AmSty and Total seek buyers. Also, AmSty will cease production at its Torrance, California, location as regulatory forces from California, Oregon and Washington have impacted the PS market.

PVC Prices Flat to Down

After increasing by a total of 8¢/lb in March and April, PVC prices were expected to be flat, if not down some by press time (late May), due to China flooding the global PVC market, according to Balboa. Due to prebuying and overall precautionary measures in April, domestic supplier inventories dropped by more than 300 million lbs. However, demand has been lackluster going into the peak of the construction season. Balboa sees more stable pricing in the June-July timeframe with some potential increases if demand surges.

PET Prices Up

Prices of PET moved up by 2¢/lb in May, after increasing a total of nearly 13¢/lb in the previous two months, according to Mekaru. He ventures that some stabilization would take place in the June-July timeframe, with a potential increase of 1¢/lb in June. This is all strictly based on raw material formulation costs. He maintains that demand during the typically stronger season has been lackluster, with a market that continues to be oversupplied, including PET imports. The impact of tariffs on imported resin is also unclear.

ABS Prices Up

As with all four volume engineering thermoplastics, prices of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) moved up significantly, as benzene prices rose in step with crude oil through May, according to Tyler Wheeler, RTi’s senior business unit leader for engineering resins. The U.S. automotive market, for one, was down nearly 3-4% in sales and production, respectively, year-to-date going into June. 

Having remained flat through the first two months of the year, ABS prices rose 15-20¢/lb due to feedstock cost increases in styrene, butadiene and acrylonitrile. Pressure from competitively priced imports from dominant producers in South Korea and China eased a bit during this time; their prices were being rolled back. Wheeler forecasted ABS prices to be flat in June with a slight drop of about 5¢/lb in July-August. As with PS, the domestic market will further consolidate, he predicts.

PC Prices Up

Prices of polycarbonate (PC) were flat through most of Q1, having dropped by 10-15% by end of Q4 2025, but prices moved up 14-16¢/lb in the April-May timeframe due to rising costs of feedstocks benzene and acetone, Wheeler says. Rising feedstock costs were starting to reverse, and he believes prices could remain flat in June with the potential of a 2-3¢/lb drop in July. By yearend, he says prices will show total increases closer to 8-10¢/lb due to a well-supplied market and weak demand. This assumes no additional surge in feedstock costs, logistical disruption or tariff impacts. 

Prices of Nylons 66, 6 Up

Prices of nylon 66, which remained largely flat in most of Q1 following a drop of 10¢/lb at end of 2025, moved up 16-25¢/lb domestically and globally, according to Wheeler. While he believes no further price hikes are likely to be implemented within the May-July timeframe, he sees prices remaining firm for the rest of the year despite overall “stagnant” demand and a well-supplied market. As part of a strategic restructuring of its engineered materials segment, Celanese is reducing nylon 66 production at domestic facilities as well as in Singapore and Europe, citing high feedstock and energy costs in the latter region.

Similarly, prices of nylon 6 also rose 5-12¢/lb, after flat pricing in the first two months and a drop of 10¢/lb by end of 2025, according to Mekaru. Suppliers had also issued new increases of 10¢/lb by late May, owing primarily to climbing feedstock costs. Overall demand continues to be lackluster, with demand for packaging steadier. While flat pricing is supported by current supply/demand fundamentals, nylon 6 prices may well remain firm through Q2 at least.